Neither Quadrilateral Nor Trilateral Or Bilateral, World Being Watched Unilateral By Indian...

Neither Quadrilateral Nor Trilateral Or Bilateral, World Being Watched Unilateral By Indian Analysts

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By
Colonel Awadhesh Kumar, Special Forces

India is the only country in the World which has a Ocean named after it and till the time Mughals started neglecting the Navy, Indian Ocean was India’s Ocean and no one had any doubts about it. Once again the time is coming back for India. Also in contrast to the Europeans, when India had ruled the waves, total peace had prevailed from Africa’s Cape of Good Hope to the Seas off Chinese Coast. Everyone traded peacefully. During the European domination on the other hand, they were no better than the pirates and the loot of the entire world was well planned and even the enslaving of the Africans.

Back to 21 century, a sane Japan knowing that Americans could not be trusted, rightly approached India to establish a solid maritime relationship to protect their trade lanes originating from Africa -Asia and passing through the Indian Ocean and then Sea off South China. Seeing it as a good opportunity to checkmate China with help of Indo Japanese partnership, USA too joined in. Then jumped in the Boy Scout that is Australia. Thus was formed, what the Americans for their own selfish reasons, called it — a Quad in May 2007. Thus a twist was given to a bilateral IndoJap relationship and it sounded like an ominous block like the NATO but this time against China. At the time, Delhi was still in the early stages of a reorientation of its own independent policy towards establishing more robust strategic partnerships with various regional and so called Super Powers but on its own terms. So it simply rejected all security dialogues which the Americans tried to impose with an eye on their tiff with the Chinese. Also right from the beginning India was aware that Australia with no historical or geopolitics perspectives would be the weakest link of the Quad forum and an unnecessary drag. That is exactly what happened and the Indian government was proved right when Australia withdrew from the group in early 2008, terrified of the China’s sensitivities.

Naturally the idea of Quad got abandoned as it dropped of India’s radar. In the years that followed, India kept dismissing appeals from the US to revive the Quad. Finally when Japan realised that it was only India which had been able to stand up to the Chinese OBOR onslaught and had even made China blink at Doklam during an unprecedented border stand off, that it went all out to appeal to India to revive the idea of Quad not as a Military block but as a regional Cooperation Grouping. India finally relented but was firm that Quad would not be portrayed as some form of anti China Coalition. Though various other actions clearly indicated that unlike Australia it was not worried about any backlash from any Power ….America, Russia, China or Japan or groupings like the ASEAN Arab League, African Union, European Union and Latin Americans.

At the same time, India joined Russia and China to cooperate on various issues which are of common interest, on equal footing and on its own terms. This was as if Chinese opposition to Indian entry into Nuclear Suppliers Group and Chinese backing to Pakistan’s terrorist activities were matters to be resolved separately as per the time to be chosen by India.

During the informal Wuhan summit both Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping quietly discussed their deep differences but agreed to find ways of working together. Just before the Shanghai Cooperation Summit, Modi stated that Wuhan Summit helped cementing strong and stable relations between India and China an important factor for global peace and progress. He firmly believed that Asia and the world will have a better future when India and China work together in trust and confidence, sensitive to each other’s interests. The two countries are worlds Second and third largest economies and military powers for nothing ….their combined population virtually dwarfs any other block / grouping in the World.

Therefore Modi attended the SCO summit in Qingdao, China, for the first time as an official member of the group. Modi and Xi once again agreed to find a project that they could work on collaboratively in Afghanistan and to engage Pakistan to reduce regional tensions. New Delhi also signed the Qingdao Declaration, which noted that ….economic globalisation is confronted with the expansion of unilateral protectionist policies……an indirect reference to the ongoing Trade Wars.

Apart from Quad India also outrightly rejected the American Australian efforts to elevate the Malabar naval exercises to a quadrilateral affair. For Malabar Ex India had agreed to include naval assets from Singapore, Japan, US and even Australia. However the exercise was downgraded to a bilateral initiative after the Quad got rejected in 2008. Japan rejoined the exercise in 2009, eventually being inducted as a permanent member in 2015. By contrast, Australia’s private and public lobbying efforts to rejoin Malabar have been rebuffed by Delhi each year since 2015.

Australians should know that apart from being the weakest member of the Quad both economically and militarily they had been louder than the Americans in their action after the Indian Nuclear Blast in 1998. Then their Immigration Policy announced right after their PM’s visit to India in 2017 was perceived as anti India by New Delhi. Therefore before joining the Malabar Ex they need to feel sorry for their actions.Till that time even for Tokyo and Washington all Quad related dialogues will be at the level of joint Secretary on the Indian side and assistant secretary of others.

Americans in their own interest will like to see the Quad emerge as a powerful military block for keeping Indo Pacific ‘ FREE ‘but India will have none of it at least until any country in the area actually violates the laid down by the United Nations and ratified by Indian Parliament. Among those seeking Quad against China only India has a large land-border with China. Both Countries have lived peacefully since last 7000 years except the little skirmishes in 1962 when four severely handicapped Indian brigades ( out of then sixty ) fought a short war with the Chinese. Then in 1967 just one Indian brigade inflicted similar damages at Nathula. Also unlike many other countries in the region and the rest of the World, India neither seeks nor requires any security guarantees from any Country. It has the capability to look after itself against any power.

The new India picks its own battles in the chosen arena. India actually has been the most steadfast in confronting USA, Beijing or even Russia over Non Proliferation, Terrorism, POK,Iran relationship, Palestine, Indo Tibetan Border disputes, trade matters at WTO etc etc and etc. Though there has been a difference. Whereas others display hostile attitudes, India just voices its concerns and thereafter remains steadfast on its views. Hostility will only be reciprocated and never initiated …..just like the nuclear NFU. Malabar, Quads etc May be upgraded any time if required !!

India has its own Indo-Pacific policy and the Chinese were told about it very clearly during the second maritime dialogue with Beijing. The Policy encompasses the region and not any specific Country or any Power actual or self styled. ASEAN is central to India in this area and India will go all the way to back them. India and China may have serious differences over many issues but that does not mean they cannot work together or singly in the fields of investment, trade, and infrastructure cooperation with various countries in the region. Even countries within India’s sphere such as Nepal, Bangladesh, the Maldives, and Sri Lanka Free to get Chinese investment without the investor or the recipient crossing the LAXAMAN REKHA. New Delhi has vigorously pushed its own investments in these Countries.

India is progressively seeking port access and joint development agreements with various states throughout the Indo-Pacific to regain the days of Mauryan, Cholas and Pallavas Empire. India has once again demonstrated that why the Ocean is named the Indian Ocean by forging agreements in Oman, Assumption Island (Seychelles), Chabahar (Iran), and Sabang (Indonesia)etc. Andamans are shaping up as a formidable Naval Base and in the foreseeable future a similar type base in Mauritius and Vietnam may not look out of place.

Nowadays World may have to be looked through the Prism located at Raisina Hills and not Washington, Moscow, Tokyo, Beijing or the forgotten London alone.