Population collapse gathering pace in Ukraine

Ukraine is on the verge of a demographic crisis due to the losses it has suffered in the conflict, a massive population outflow, and a decline in the birth rate, Reuters reported, citing the country’s National Academy of Sciences.

According to researchers, Ukraine’s population, which stood at 42 million before the conflict, has now shrunk below 36 million, and is expected to drop further to 25 million by 2051.

“The country has both the highest death rates and lowest birth rates in the world, according to 2024 estimates in the CIA World Factbook: for every birth there are around three deaths,” Reuters notes. According to government estimates, Ukraine’s average male life expectancy dropped from 65.2 years before the conflict to 57.3 years in 2024, and for women, the figure fell from 74.4 to 70.9.

The news agency points out that in March, Ukraine’s Center for Economic Strategy said about 5.2 million Ukrainians who had left the country remained overseas, “in a host of mainly European countries, including Russia, Germany and Poland.” The center estimates that “between 1.7 and 2.7 million of those people would remain abroad, and could be joined by hundreds of thousands of adult men, who are currently not allowed to leave Ukraine,” when the conflict ends.

Ukraine has been facing major demographic issues since its 1991 independence. According to the United Nations office in Geneva, the country’s population has dropped by eight million since February 2022. Ukraine conducted its last census in 2001, when the country’s population stood at 48.4 million.