Eurasian bloc and India push toward free trade agreement by 2026
By Anand Sharma
The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), a post-Soviet bloc consisting of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia, has formally stepped up efforts to conclude a free trade agreement (FTA) with India. The announcement came after Andrey Slepnev, the bloc’s trade minister, visited New Delhi on September 15–16 for talks with Indian officials. The move underscores growing economic interdependence between India and Eurasian economies at a time when global trade realignments are accelerating in the wake of geopolitical tensions and sanctions regimes.
Speaking in New Delhi, Slepnev emphasized the mutual interest shared by both sides in deepening commercial ties. “First of all, we certainly recognize the interest of Indian partners in developing trade with the Eurasian Economic Union,” he said. “In this regard, the interest is mutual.”
He noted that while Indian goods entering the EAEU market remain important, the bloc’s top priority is to expand the visibility and competitiveness of Eurasian products in India. To that end, the EAEU has set a 2026 deadline for finalizing the FTA, giving both parties less than two years to align on sensitive tariff schedules, regulatory frameworks, and sectoral concessions.
Negotiations are expected to kick off in earnest this November, when the first formal round of talks is scheduled to take place in India. According to the Russian Embassy in New Delhi, these discussions will focus on the “core aspects of the future deal,” following a period of intensive consultations between Indian officials and representatives of EAEU member states.
The timeline for the FTA is being carefully calibrated with high-level political engagements. Slepnev noted that progress on the agreement is expected before
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s upcoming visit to India, where he will meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Officials aim to showcase tangible achievements by the time the Eurasian leaders convene for a December summit.
“Within the Eurasian Union, we are focused on completing this significant cycle of work by the December summit and on reaching some fundamental agreements on key issues that will enable us to be confident that by the deadline we have set for ourselves – 2026 – we will have already achieved tangible results,” Slepnev said.
The planned summit could serve as a milestone for consolidating commitments and setting the direction for subsequent negotiation rounds. The involvement of top leaders such as Modi and Putin underscores the political weight being attached to the trade agreement, which both sides see as a vehicle for bolstering their strategic partnership.
Bilateral trade between India and the EAEU has grown steadily despite global economic headwinds. According to India’s Commerce Ministry, trade rose by 7% in 2024, reaching $69 billion. Much of this growth has been driven by energy supplies, particularly Russian crude oil, which India has purchased at discounted rates amid Western sanctions on Moscow.
But both sides are eager to diversify the trade basket. For India, the proposed FTA could unlock new opportunities for exporters in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, information technology, textiles, and automotive components. For the EAEU, the deal could open pathways for its agricultural produce, fertilizers, machinery, and industrial goods to enter India’s vast consumer market.
“With a combined GDP of $6.5 trillion, the proposed [agreement] is expected to expand market access for Indian exporters, support diversification into new sectors and geographies, enhance competitiveness against non-market economies, and deliver significant benefits to micro, small, and medium enterprises,” the Commerce Ministry said in August.
The timing of these negotiations is critical. India has been recalibrating its trade strategies, with a focus on forging agreements that serve its economic and geopolitical interests. While New Delhi has been cautious about entering comprehensive free trade agreements in the past-having withdrawn from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in 2019-it has become more open to selective, targeted deals with strategic partners.
Engaging with the EAEU allows India to deepen its footprint in Central Asia and the broader Eurasian region, where China has been making inroads through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). For the EAEU, India represents a vital partner beyond the West, especially as Russia faces increasing isolation from Western markets due to sanctions related to the Ukraine conflict.
A free trade agreement would also reinforce the growing trend of de-dollarization and diversification in global trade. With both India and Russia already settling a significant share of transactions in national currencies, the FTA could institutionalize mechanisms to reduce reliance on the US dollar in bilateral trade.
Despite the positive momentum, significant hurdles remain. Aligning tariff structures across five EAEU members and ensuring they dovetail with India’s domestic priorities is no small task. Sensitive sectors such as agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and defense-related industries could spark lengthy debates. Moreover, India’s domestic industries often voice concerns about FTAs flooding the market with cheap imports, which may harm local producers.
Regulatory harmonization presents another challenge. The EAEU has its own standards for product certification, sanitary measures, and customs procedures, while India maintains a complex regulatory environment of its own. Bridging these gaps will require detailed negotiations and possibly phased implementation.
Geopolitical factors may also complicate the process. Western powers, particularly the US and the European Union, could perceive the India–EAEU agreement as a move that undercuts sanctions regimes and strengthens Moscow’s hand. India will likely need to balance its strategic autonomy with its broader international relationships.
Despite challenges, the prospects for the India–EAEU FTA appear promising. Both sides are motivated by pragmatic economic interests as well as broader geopolitical considerations. The EAEU’s ambition to finalize the agreement by 2026 may be ambitious but not unrealistic, provided negotiations remain on track and political will is sustained.
For India, the deal offers a chance to expand its trade geography, secure reliable access to energy and raw materials, and provide new opportunities for its exporters. For the EAEU, the partnership represents an economic lifeline and a chance to anchor itself in one of the world’s fastest-growing markets.
As negotiations begin in November, the outcome will not only shape the future of India–EAEU economic ties but could also set a precedent for how regional trade blocs and emerging powers recalibrate global commerce in an era of shifting alliances.
