India’s strategic balance between US and China

By Anita Mathur
As geopolitical tensions continue to shape global dynamics, India finds itself in a precarious position between two major world powers: the United States and China. While Washington aggressively pushes for an anti-China alliance, New Delhi has opted for a more cautious approach, recognizing that China, as a neighboring powerhouse, will remain a permanent fixture in its geopolitical landscape.
One of the most significant moments in India-China relations in recent history was the 2020 Galwan Valley clash. The Galwan River, a relatively obscure geographical feature known primarily to military personnel and geographers, suddenly became a global focal point in June 2020.
The skirmish, which erupted between Indian and Chinese troops along the disputed Line of Actual Control (LAC), was not an isolated incident but rather an escalation of long-standing border disputes.
Unlike previous standoffs, this confrontation resulted in fatalities. Although both India and China have followed an agreement since 1996 to patrol the LAC without live ammunition, the brutal hand-to-hand combat that ensued led to 20 Indian soldiers losing their lives.
China, which initially downplayed its losses, later admitted to four casualties, though Indian sources claim the actual number was closer to 40.
The clash sent shockwaves through India, fueling nationalist sentiments and calls for a tougher stance against China. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, already under pressure due to the COVID-19 pandemic and economic slowdown, had to respond decisively to public outrage.
The diplomatic gains achieved through the so-called “Wuhan Spirit,” a term used to describe the warming ties following Modi’s 2018 visit to China, quickly unraveled in the wake of Galwan.
Prior to Galwan, India and China had engaged in a delicate balancing act. Both nations, despite being rivals in regional geopolitics, had significant economic ties. Modi’s 2018 visit to China and Xi Jinping’s reciprocal visit to India in 2019 had fostered hopes of stability and cooperation.
However, longstanding border tensions, China’s support for Pakistan, and its growing influence in the Indian Ocean region had fueled Indian apprehensions.
The 2017 Doklam standoff, where Indian troops intervened to halt Chinese road construction in Bhutanese territory, further illustrated the volatility of their relations.
Despite such tensions, the Indian government maintained a pragmatic approach, leveraging its position to engage economically with both China and the West.
The United States, keen on countering China’s rise, has actively sought to pull India into its strategic orbit. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), comprising India, the US, Japan, and Australia, has been framed as an alliance aimed at ensuring a “free and open Indo-Pacific.”
However, India remains wary of being perceived as an American proxy in a direct confrontation with China.
While India shares concerns over China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea and its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which encroaches upon its sphere of influence, it also recognizes the dangers of full-scale decoupling.
The Indian economy remains deeply intertwined with China, with critical sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, and telecommunications reliant on Chinese imports.
Following the Galwan incident, India took steps to reduce its economic dependence on China. It banned numerous Chinese apps, restricted investments from Chinese firms, and imposed stricter regulations on Chinese companies operating in sensitive sectors.
However, these measures have had limited impact on trade figures. Bilateral trade between the two nations has continued to grow, reflecting the deep economic interdependence that neither side can easily sever.
At the same time, India has sought to attract Western investment as an alternative to Chinese capital. Programs such as “Make in India” and incentives for foreign direct investment (FDI) were expected to draw American and European companies.
However, global economic uncertainties, including disruptions caused by the Ukraine conflict and shifting US policies, have tempered investor enthusiasm.
Despite these challenges, India has made strides in strengthening its domestic manufacturing sector, particularly in defense and technology.
Initiatives such as the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme have sought to boost local production in critical areas, reducing reliance on Chinese imports over time.
Recent developments suggest that India is recalibrating its China strategy. At the 2024 BRICS Summit in Kazan, Modi and Xi Jinping held a personal meeting, marking a step toward diplomatic thawing. Soon after, both nations agreed to withdraw troops from key border flashpoints and establish mechanisms to prevent future clashes.
Furthermore, high-level engagements, including meetings between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, have yielded a six-point roadmap for improving bilateral ties.
While full normalization remains a distant goal, these steps indicate a shift toward pragmatic engagement rather than outright hostility.
In parallel to its China policy, India has intensified its engagements in the Indo-Pacific, strengthening ties with countries such as Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines. The formation of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), along with deeper military collaborations with Australia and France, reflects India’s bid to counterbalance China’s growing influence in the region without outright confrontation.
India has also increased its naval presence in the Indian Ocean, reinforcing maritime partnerships to secure trade routes and deter Chinese expansionism.
Through initiatives such as the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), New Delhi has positioned itself as a stabilizing force in regional geopolitics.
India’s refusal to fully align with the US against China is a calculated decision driven by long-term strategic interests. While Delhi values its partnerships with Washington, it recognizes that an aggressive anti-China stance would bring limited benefits and significant risks.
Instead, India is charting its own path, leveraging its strategic autonomy to maintain balanced relationships with both powers. By deepening its global partnerships, strengthening its domestic economy, and cautiously managing its border tensions with China, India aims to secure its position as a leading global player without being drawn into a zero-sum geopolitical rivalry.
As India continues its rise on the global stage, its foreign policy will likely remain characterized by a balancing act-engaging with the US while maintaining a cautious, yet necessary, relationship with China.
In the evolving geopolitical chessboard, India is determined to play its own game rather than serve as a pawn in a larger conflict.