*Multi front War against India and its Defence Counters*

*Saudi Wahabi Oil Lobby & Trump Administration*

The Reliance–Aramco deal which didn’t fructify was never just about mismatched valuations or any disagreements but it was about a larger shift in the balance of power in global energy markets and I see it as a turning point where India’s energy strategy collided with Saudi Arabia’s traditional dominance.

Reliance’s pivot toward Russian crude, combined with its green energy ambitions, broke the alignment that the Saudis had hoped would cement their grip over India’s refining future.

*What Reliance did was simple but yet hurt Aramco*: from 2022 onwards it aggressively bought discounted Russian Urals, securing barrels that were $6–$12 cheaper than Middle Eastern supplies, and ran them through the world’s largest refining complex at Jamnagar.

The economics were unbeatable. By 2025, Russian crude made up 36–50% of Reliance’s intake, compared to just 3–10% before 2022, and in the first half of 2025 alone Reliance exported over 21 million tonnes of refined fuels to Europe. These were volumes that Aramco once supplied, and as *Indian cargoes docked in Europe, Saudi diesel was displaced. The Saudis lost contracts, lost market share*.

This angered Riyadh, because for them this isn’t just about barrels it’s about prestige and power. India, once considered a steady customer, is now being accused of destabilizing crude markets. The timing made it worse: just as Saudi Arabia has been trying to recalibrate its ties with Washington, it finds that Indian refiners are undercutting it in Europe with Russian Oil.

The anger translates into geopolitics, because Riyadh’s deep ties with Washington’s power brokers give it leverage. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has already promised the U.S. a trillion dollars in investments, and Aramco and the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF), led by Yasir Al-Rumayyan, have placed $2 billion in Jared Kushner’s private equity fund in 2021, buying influence at the very top of Trump’s orbit.

*The Wahhabi oil lobby knows how to work the levers of Washington, and the pressure campaign against India’s Russian crude play is being dressed up as strategic necessity for both Aramco’s recovery and America’s desire to protect the dollar system*.

Pakistan, predictably, is being recycled as a proxy in this pressure game. In 2023, the Saudis injected $2 billion into Pakistan’s central bank, enabling Islamabad to unlock an IMF bailout, and promised further investments in projects like the Reko Diq mine.

Pakistan’s noise about India’s refining of Russian crude, particularly attempts to demonize the Jamnagar refinery, isn’t organic. The idea is to squeeze India indirectly, making life uncomfortable for Indian Refiners & to signal that India’s growing dominance in refined exports won’t go unchallenged.

The Americans add another layer of irritation. *It isn’t just about crude discounts it’s about the fact that a large part of India’s trade with Russia bypasses the dollar. Settlements in rupees, dirhams, or even yuan are chipping away at dollar hegemony.

For Washington, this is the unforgivable sin,* and Trump, who is already annoyed by India’s sovereign trade postures, sees this as part of that defiance. Still, I believe *the ability of the U.S. or the Saudis to act directly against Reliance is limited.*

Jamnagar isn’t just India’s refinery; it is a critical node in global energy security, with BP and other stakeholders entangled in its ecosystem. *Europe, which depends heavily on Indian refined fuels after cutting Russian supplies, should resist any sanctions that undermine its energy balance*.

Though Trump is making efforts on Europe to stop buying Russian Oil. This is the GCC oil lobby speaking along with Big Oil & Shale in USA who seek to dominate European energy markets. This makes outright punitive action unlikely, though whispers, targeted propaganda, and pressure campaigns will continue. *The larger picture is that India is no longer bending to American bullying.*

Russian Crude Arbitrage – Fact or Fiction?
Reliance was not the only beneficiary of the Russian crude arbitrage. The windfall profits generated by refiners from discounted Urals did not remain entirely in private hands New Delhi swiftly imposed a windfall tax on petroleum exports, ensuring that the exchequer captured a substantial slice of the margins to fund its fiscal needs.

*At the same time, India’s state-owned refiners like IOC, BPCL, and HPCL actually absorbed an even larger share of Russian barrels than Reliance, collectively shifting their intake patterns far more dramatically*.

The exchequer collected over ₹94,000 crore (approx. $11 billion) through such levies. That money was not left idle it was channelled to repair the fragile balance sheets of *state-run Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), which had long been bleeding from legacy oil bonds and interest payments inherited from the UPA era.

Between 2005 and 2010, the UPA government issued oil bonds worth approximately ₹1.48 lakh crore* to compensate state-run Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) for fuel subsidies a mechanism designed to shield fuel consumers while avoiding immediate budget strain.

*Over time, the government paid around ₹1.38 lakh crore in interest on these bonds up to FY 2020–21, including interest payments of roughly ₹80,452* crore between FY 2013–14 and FY 2020–21. *Only ₹3,500 crore in principal was repaid by 2019–20, leaving approximately ₹1.3 lakh crore in principal due, with scheduled repayments totalling nearly ₹3.2 lakh crore*, inclusive of both principal and interest.

The Government also had to raise excise duty on petroleum products sorting out the mess which the previous government had created and invest some of that money in mega infrastructure projects over past 5 years which generated large employment in India amid a world in global turbulence.

Additionally, part of the windfall revenue was earmarked for infrastructure and capital expenditure under the National Infrastructure Pipeline, funding highways, logistics parks, and renewable energy projects. In other words, the arbitrage gains were captured by the state and reinvested for public good, not simply private profit.

Moreover, arbitrage itself is not illegal; Russian oil was never sanctioned by Washington or Brussels, and in fact, the U.S. Treasury under the Biden administration openly encouraged this “refining loophole” to ensure global price stability. By painting Reliance’s role in oil arbitrage as profiteering, critics miss the context entirely.

Geo-Politics around the Russian Oil

*The Russian oil bogey is less about economics and more a pressure tactic using billionaire scapegoats to try and bend India’s government on trade negotiations*. While Jamnagar became the global symbol of India’s refining clout, it was the PSU refiners that anchored India’s Russian crude imports, stabilizing domestic fuel supply and shielding consumers, while also boosting government revenue through tax flows.

In that sense, the pivot to Russia became not just a Reliance story but a broader sovereign strategy where both public and private players reaped gains, and the state consolidated its energy and fiscal position simultaneously.

*The Saudi play is never just about oil flows it is about the full spectrum of leverage, and Pakistan’s nuclear card has long been one of Riyadh’s hidden bargaining chips. Saudi financing of Islamabad’s nuclear program has been whispered about for decades, and in moments of pressure, that connection surfaces as an unspoken reminder of what Riyadh can unleash if its strategic interests are undermined*.

It is part of the larger web of coercion where energy, finance, and security are interlinked. Ironically Pakistan committed Pahalgam terror attack on the day Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was on a state visit to Saudi Arabia, while it may seem to be coincidence but could be part of a plan to derail any Indo-Saudi attachment.

*What most people forget is that Saudi Arabia does not even sit on the world’s largest reserves*; *Venezuela holds that title, with over 300 billion barrels*, but its crude is politically trapped, sanctioned, and heavily sulphurous, keeping it out of free circulation. Should Venezuela’s barrels return to the market, or *Iran’s supplies* flow freely in a “hot” scenario, the *ripple effect would rattle too many players from Aramco to Exxon, from OPEC to shale producers*.

More importantly, such a disruption would hammer the shadow circuits of global terror finance, which thrive on petrodollar flows and Middle Eastern oil rents.

A destabilized pricing system weakens the funding pipelines of jihadist networks that rely on Gulf largesse. That is why the stakes are much higher than just India buying discounted Russian crude.

*This fallout with America sits at the intersection of oil geopolitics, nuclear leverage, and the financing of extremism* an arena where even small shifts in trade patterns reverberate across global power structures.

India has chosen to navigate the turbulence around Russian oil with a mix of pragmatism and strategic alignment. *Rather than succumbing to Western pressure, New Delhi has leaned on multilateral platforms where the discourse is shifting against unilateralism*.

At the SCO summit in Tianjin, *India stood with Russia and China in reaffirming cooperation against the weaponization of trade, tariffs, and sanctions*. The message was clear: energy security and sovereign choices cannot be dictated by a single capital.

*Brazil has amplified this chorus, calling for a virtual BRICS meeting to collectively resist Washington’s push* for 50% tariffs and to explore alternative settlement systems.

*What looks like opportunism on India’s part is in fact a careful calibration of partnerships across SCO, BRICS, and G20, ensuring that Russian barrels and discounted crude are framed not as defiance, but as part of a larger South-South solidarity against economic coercion*.

The resilience of India Inc has only reinforced this policy stance. When the *EU moved to sanction Nayara Energy where Russia’s Rosneft holds a stake the corporate sector rallied behind the government*, treating it as *a national cause rather than a company-specific issue.

Reliance Industries, in particular, has shown how to turn risk into opportunity*. By diversifying beyond oil into telecom, retail, new energy, and now artificial intelligence, RIL has hedged its oil play and future-proofed its empire.

The next logical step, its expansion into financial services, is a masterstroke that brings Silicon Valley and Wall Street magnets into its orbit. This is not just corporate agility it is alignment with India’s sovereign strategy.

At the moment of pressure, RIL and the wider *India Inc have positioned themselves not as liabilities but as force multipliers for the government*, making India’s energy gamble part of a larger national ascent.