US-India relationship is getting stormy
Trump character had shared bear hugs, showered praise on PM Modi and made appearances side by side with him at stadium rallies — a big optics boost for Trump as leader of the geographically largest democracy standing next to the leader of the World’s largest democracy, calling the other a good friend.
In India, the bonhomie displayed by the U.S. President Donald Trump was seen as wanting to embrace India. There was unease as Kissinger had said “it’s dangerous to be a friend of the USA”.
From Trump’s tariffs and India’s continuing its purchase of oil from friend Russia to a U.S. tilt towards Pakistan, friction between New Delhi and Washington has been hard to miss. And much of it has happened far from the corridors of power and, unsurprisingly, through Trump’s posts on social media.
It has left policy experts on both sides wondering whether the camaraderie the two leaders shared may be a thing of the past, even though Trump has stopped short of referring to PM Modi directly on social media.
PM Modi on the other hand has refused to even acknowledge any of the Quixote dance of Trump. The dip in rapport, some say, puts a bilateral relationship built over decades at risk.
“This is a testing time for the relationship,” said Ashok Malik, a former policy adviser in India’s Foreign Ministry.
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The latest hiccup between India and the U.S. emerged last week when Trump announced that he was slapping 25% tariffs on India as well as an unspecified penalty because of India’s refusal to quit purchasing Russian oil. For New Delhi, such a move from Trump was expected even though presently the US is its largest trading partner.
However, Modi has already taken measures and so too little will be felt across sectors in India.Though soon it will have more repercussions on the USA economy itself. Trump’s action also led to a sense of seething anger in India — even more so when Trump, on social media, called India’s economy “dead”….the third largest in PPP terms.
Trump’s recent statements reflect his frustration with the pace of trade talks with India, according to a White House official who was not authorized to speak publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity to describe internal administration thinking.
The Republican president has not been pursuing any strategic realignment with Pakistan, according to the official, but is instead trying to play hardball in negotiations. Trump forgets that this time he is dealing with India whose PM is a master strategist. India will negotiate at its own pace without getting hassled.
Trump doubled down with a fresh post on Truth Social, in which he accused India of buying “massive amounts” of oil from Russia and then “selling it on the Open Market for big profits.” He forgot to add that he himself along with his EU partners have been purchasing massive quantities of oil, gas, rare earths and fertilizer from Russia.
“They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine. Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA,” he said. Have Trump or EU leaders cared how many terrorist attacks have been sponsored by Pakistan inside India ? As far as Indians are concerned, the Ukrainian war is the doing of the EU and USA itself and it is Russia, our closest friend, which is defending its national interests.
Trump forgets that Kennedy was ready to kill half of the World over Russian missiles in Cuba in 1962. However Western countries want Russia to not object to Ukraine joining NATO …what double standards !!!
The messaging appears to have only hardened Modi’s administration resolve to defend its national interest. The Indian team has been hard-selling negotiations with Trump’s team over a trade deal by protecting India’s Red Lines while also opening up the country’s market.
Many expected India to react strongly considering Modi’s carefully crafted reputation of strength. Accordingly, on one hand the announcement prompted a careful response from India’s commerce minister, Piyush Goyal, who said the two countries are working towards a “fair, balanced and mutually beneficial bilateral trade agreement.” On the other hand India has also imposed reciprocal tariffs on the USA through the WTO route.
However, experts in New Delhi wonder, that “Strenuous, uninterrupted and bipartisan efforts in both capitals over the past 25 years are being put at risk by not just the tariffs but by fast and loose statements and social media posts,” said Malik, who now heads the India chapter of The Asia Group, a U.S. advisory firm.
Malik also said the trade deal the Indian side has offered to the U.S. is the “most expansive in this country’s history.”
The unraveling may have gained momentum over tariffs, but the tensions have been palpable for a while. Much of it has to do with Trump growing closer to Pakistan, which recently got bashed very soundly during Indian initiated Operation Sindoor in response to Paki sponsored terror attack in Kashmir Valley. Ceasefire took place only after Paki DGMO approached the DGMO in New Delhi pleaded for it. Here too Trump falsely claimed to have brokered the ceasefire and proved himself to be a total LIAR.
Since then, Trump has repeated nearly two dozen times that he brokered peace between India and Pakistan.Last week Modi dismiss Trump’s claims after India’s Opposition began demanding answers from him. Modi said that “no country in the world stopped” the fighting between India and Pakistan, but he did not name Trump.
India has already called Pakistan’s nuclear bluff but what Trump is trying is to irritate India by equating it with Pakistan. However now India will also not hesitate in equating the USA with North Korea and will further deepen it’s relationship with Iran who is a neighbour unlike USA a far off land.
Why does Trump keep making such claims ? This is because the USA in particular and the West in general have been totally unnerved by a rising India which neither informed them nor gave any hint prior to hammering Pakistan nice and proper.
India has given a shut up call to the Western countries including USA over Kashmir and will not permit any third-party intervention. Trump has also appeared to be warming up to Pakistan, even praising its counterterrorism efforts. Hours after levying tariffs on India, Trump announced a “massive” oil exploration deal with Pakistan, saying that some day, India might have to buy oil from Islamabad. Earlier, he also hosted one of Pakistan’s top military officials at a private lunch.
Trump’s sudden admiration for Pakistan as a great partner in counterterrorism has “definitely soured” the mood in India and may see countermeasures with talks with North Korea and Iran.
The strain in relations has also to do with Russian oil.
India had earlier rejected strong demands from the Biden administration to cut back its oil purchases from Moscow during the early months of the Ukraine conflict. Instead, India bought more, making it the second-biggest buyer of Russian oil after China. That demand sputtered over time and the U.S. focused more on building strategic ties with India, which is seen as a bulwark against a rising China.
Trump’s threat to India over Russian oil, however, brought back those issues.
On Sunday, the Trump administration made its frustrations over ties between India and Russia ever more public. Stephen Miller, deputy chief of staff at the White House, accused India of financing Russia’s war in Ukraine by purchasing oil from Moscow, saying it was “not acceptable.” Mr Miller forgets that the USA has been financing Pakistan as a terrorist state since 1960s itself.
