China-India Relations Back To Crossroads With Eased Tensions
China and India have taken actions to ease tensions along the LAC in accordance with the consensus reached between the two sides. Many observers have hailed the official statement of Hua Chunying, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson as a clear sign that the recent LAC standoff between China and India is de-escalating.
The easing of LAC situation will certainly give both countries greater flexibility on future economic and trade exchanges, which will help the interests of both sides. Increase in tensions will lead to escalation and finally turn into a conflict in a worst-case scenario. Then there would be little room for maneuver in India China relations. Also considering the impact of military conflict on the economy and business circles, bilateral trade would inevitably suffer. As it is people of India and Tibet are very angry with the Government of China.
Now it seems that things are moving in a positive direction, thus increasing the possibility of de-escalation in the LAC situation. It will further lead to bilateral economic and trade cooperation expansion in the future. This will be in the interest of already slowing Chinese economy and help expand the Indian economy.
More than ever, the both the governments need to focus their attention on domestic and international issues such as the ongoing Wuhan virus pandemic, its spread from China outwards, locust attacks and exodus of manufacturing companies from China. Failing to contain the spread of the virus, weeks of nationwide lockdowns have stagnated the Indian economy and slowed down the Chinese economy. The unemployment rate in urban India hit 27 percent in mid-May, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, a figure much lower than China. This is in spite of the fact that there is a big unorganized sector functioning in India. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development estimated in a report that the Indian economy could contract by as much as 7.3 percent in fiscal year 2021 and the Chinese economy by over 8%.
When the LAC dispute is eased between China and India, bilateral economic and trade ties are expected to return to normal. However, it is worth noting that the global geopolitical situation has become more complex as China-US relations are on the brink of a new Cold War and Australia has just formed a comprehensive strategic partnership with India.Uncle Sam is there for Australia but far off, Bhai India is much closer. At this juncture, China faces increased geopolitical pressure and temptation. India stock on the other hand is rising as it has long adhered to the non-alignment principle in its foreign policy.
India is now going to Chair the World Heath Organization and so China may feel a bit of unease due to vociferous demand from Australia and others to enquire into Chinese role in spread if Wuhan Virus. India is also going to join the UN Security Council as elected member from Indo Pacific. Though India not becoming a permanent member of UNSC has made it a meaningless body.
All these mean that India will continue to maintain its diplomatic independence will neither be afraid of China nor lean toward the US-led allies amid the changeable geopolitical environment.
If the Chinese led by Xi Jinping choose to make friends with India, then India China ties will surely have more growth potential. But China keeps confronting India like the recent Ladhak intrusion then India will not hesitate to protect its own interests, whether political, military or economic. And it will completely unravel China starting with Tibet.
