Closer Trade Ties Between China, India Can Be Normalized only after Demarcation of Indo Tibetan and Tibet China Border
Colonel Awadhesh Kumar, Veteran
India follows its own independent foreign policy and would like to have good bilateral relationships with every country. However it will not choose any military block especially to gang up against a third country.
India will never choose an ally, just for rapid economic development under globalization or bow to any military pressure from any existing or future Super Power.
India has always pursued a policy of non-alignment even when militarily it was quite weak. Now when it is Strong enough to fend off any existing power, it will certainly promote a multi polar world to the hilt. India wants to have deep economic and trade ties with every country, whether it is UAE, Russia, Japan, ASEAN, USA, China, the European Union or Iran. However such ties will have to be based on equality.
Accordingly, India had trade ties with China too. This brought the two countries closer. After all just till 450 years back, both India and China had together covered 50% plus GDP of the World.
However, China totally under estimating India, once again back stabbed India for the second time after the 1962 border skirmishes by carrying out the Galwan incident. This time China has crossed the RED LINE and now onwards this will just not be acceptable or tolerated by India.
It is time for the Chinese to seriously consider whether they want a permanent trade partnership with India or not. India has decided to decouple all economic activity with China. However it is doing so in a phased manner under its own plan. So even though short term figures may be showing volume growth in trade, soon the trend will reverse.
Whether China likes it or not, the tightly connected India China trade is being dismantled and disconnected. The embedded international supply chain is being cut slowly. In the foreseeable future the World will see that whether it is China or India who anchors the global supply chain.
China in the broader context cannot ignore that Washington and many others are wooing India in various ways to get it in their camp against China. QUAD and now AUKUS have been increasing their pull towards India over the past year to bring India into its diplomatic, security, and economic grouping to contain China.
Therefore China must decide whether it wants India’s as a very close trade partner or an enemy. Making an enemy of India should not be an option for China and it is one one that China cannot afford to make. Further increasing cooperation is the right choice.
However to establish a record two-way trade through the two countries’ economic complementarities and the strong resilience of bilateral economic relations, the first thing required is to reestablish solid TRUST.
To reestablish the shattered TRUST, China must withdraw from entire occupied territories in Ladhak including Shakshagam Valley of POK and then both sides must ratify and physically demarcate the Indo Tibetan border.
Secondly in a similar manner the border between China and Tibet must be ratified and physically demarcated on ground.
Thirdly, a tri lateral meet must lay down a time line for autonomy / full independence to Tibet.
We hope that Beijing can appreciate the historical significance of the two countries’ closer political, economic and trade relations on future of rest of the World.