Indian Exports to China Now Coming Down Continuously
Indian exports to China have started coming down. Official data released by the General Administration of Customs of China prove this fact. China’s imports from India dropped 57 percent to INR 10230 Crores in April, from INR 23750 Crores in the same period last year, a drastic fall indeed. During the January-April period, China’s imports from India fell by 36.2 percent year-on-year.
China’s imports from India plummeted in April, due in part to it’s own efforts to curb the worst COVID-19 outbreak since 2020. The Wuhan Virus is so serious that it has reduced its domestic demand drastically.
However, there is nowadays more to India China trade than mere Wuhan virus epidemic. The growth in overall trade between the two countries is much slower than the growth rate in China’s overall trade. There has been a sharp decline in India’s exports to China.
Indian reduced exports to China is now behind many other Chinese trading partners, as India is no more enamoured by the vast consumer market of China. India is simply not ready to trade its Self Respect or its Border Security, just for gaining an easy access to the Chinese Market.
Presently India has a massive trade surplus with China, The sharp decrease in exports has therefore increased India’s trade deficit with China to INR 59250 Crores in April, INR 35250 Crores in the same period last year. However to reduce the imbalance, India is not going to boost its export to China.
There will be no business as usual, till China resolves the boundary issue permanently. Only then there is going to be trade in a coordinated and cooperative manner. The key to solving China-India trade problem is addressing the Indo Tibetan and China Tibet boundary issue first.
India will slowly be equal to China as a manufacturing power and may even replace it. The rest of the World has faced the reality after the spread of Wuhan virus. India is now strengthening its manufacturing capability to get more integrated into the global industrial chain.
India has been promoting FTA talks with several economies recently, including the UAE, EU, UK and Canada. Its Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement with the United Arab Emirates, which was signed in February, has set a shortest record among bilateral trade negotiations. It will change the economic scenario of the entire Middle East.
India wishes to integrate into the global industrial chain through trade cooperation with developed countries, but it will not permit any entity to dictate terms. No wonder India refused to get integrated into the Asia-Pacific industrial chain, mostly because of Chinese hegemony.
India has had close industrial links with ASEAN and other Asia-Pacific economies, and they all have been requesting India to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. However due to China factor, India has politely declined to join.
China still remains a regional trading partner for India. However there will be not much progress as long as border tensions remain. Non resolution of border tensions will keep affecting the overall development of bilateral relations.
During a visit by Chinese State Counselor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi to India in March, both sides agreed to hold talks on further economic and trade cooperation. However for moving in the same direction and to expand mutually beneficial bilateral cooperation, China has to resolve the Indo Tibetan border issue first and China Tibet boundary issue the next.