China Talks Of A ‘New Quad’, To Threaten Peace
China has always been fearing the formation of QUAD as either an economic block or worse as a military block because it will curb all its bullying of the smaller nations of Indo Pacific Region. So, citing some obscure self styled analyst in India, China has now started hyping -up the idea that after the US and its allies leave Afghanistan, a “new Quad” between China, Russia, Iran and Pakistan may be formed in the future.
Surrounded by a bankrupt and Talibanized Pakistan and a belligerent China, India certainly has to be very careful as these two countries share land borders with India. Also both these Countries are in occupation of chunks if Indian territory in Jammu& Kashmir and Ladhak. Both these neighbours also stake claim on Indian State/ Union Territory of Arunachal Pradesh, Jammu& Kashmir and Ladhak.
Yes, presently Iran and even Russia are not on the same page with India on Afghanistan. However this is due to the fact that India had been refraining to get involved in Afghanistan in any big way. Now things will start changing as India has realized that it just cannot sigh away from playing its true role on the World Stage. India has to remain not only vigilant to the developing situation but also assert itself.
Historically Afghanistan has remained peaceful only when it has been under direct influence of India.
India has had lasting friendship with both Russia and Iran and so is not at all worried about any “new Quad” being formed by China, Pakistan, Iran and Russia. In fact both Russia and Iran are now cooperating with India on the Afghan issue, and the two countries are not aiming at establishing a new Quad mechanism to counterbalance the existing Quad formed by the US, Japan, India, and Australia. Iran knows the danger of establishing any such cooperation with a country like Pakistan or even China.
After US’ withdrawal from Afghanistan’s countries like India and Iran will have to play a leading role in the Afghans future peace and stability. Thus, it is obviously necessary and positive for India, Iran and Russia, the most important neighbors of Afghanistan – to strengthen coordination on the Afghan issue. Their enhanced coordination can help prevent Afghanistan from being further divided and dominated by a failed State like Pakistan.
Russia, Iran and India have common interests on regional issues. So Russia and Iran will not develop a so-called new Quad with China and Pakistan. China’s anxiety on the issue mirrors its concerns over the consequence of its disagreements with the US, Australia and Japan, Vietnam, Philippines and South Korea in the Indo Pacific. QUAD will promote economic cooperation in the Indo Pacific but at the same time will counter all the aggressive moves by Beijing.
It is widely believed that the China co spiders QUAD as an imaginary enemy Of China. Whereas ASEAN, a vital player in Asia, is very happy with the idea of QUAD as it will ensure freedom of passage and trade in the entire Indo Pacific. India too has started its investments in Russian Far East through the Shipping Lanes passing through the Indo Pacific.
Both Japan and India have completely ruled out Quad becoming a militarized group. For the Quad to become an exclusive military alliance, India will have to operate under the USA which just cannot happen as India totally follows Non Alliance in matters military.
Similarly India and Russia share similar stances on the Afghan issue where they have common interests. Both hope for peace and stability in Afghanistan. Neither of them will interfere in the country’s internal affairs. They also hope the Taliban will fulfill their promises so that Afghanistan does not become a hotbed for terrorism. Then there will be no options left but to fight terrorism.
India and Russia have formed a partnership. The two countries are strengthening communication and coordination on many specific issues. For example, the UN Security Council on Monday adopted a resolution about the Afghan issue, and Russia in order to help out India abstained rather than opposing it on account of USA. Obviously, the two countries had coordinated in advance.
So China talking about the new Quad actually reflects one fact: Beijing itself is aware that the Quad will undermine the peace and stability in Asia. It has realized that its approach is not constructive, and thus, it is now scared of possible countermeasures in the future. Beijing knows that Moscow has no intention whatsoever to plunge the world into a new cold war, or to create a confrontation between India and China.